UKIP: Why you shouldn't listen to polls

Another glass of wine, Mr Farage?

Nigel's useful idiots in the weeks prior to the elections were positively salivating after reading opinion polls which appeared to show that UKIP was ahead of the Lib Dems. More level headed UKIPPERS - and the GLW and Junius blogs - tried to point out that such polls were unreliable and should not be taken at face value. In December, we published recent election results which illustrated the folly of heeding such polls. All showed that UKIP's actual share of the vote bore no relation to the polls. For example:

The Feltham & Heston by-election

Seema Malhotra, Labour - 12,639
Mark Bowen, Conservative - 6,436
Roger Crouch, Liberal Democrats - 1,364
Andrew Charalambous, UKIP - 1,276
David Furness, BNP - 540
Daniel Goldsmith, Green - 426
Roger Cooper, English Democrats - 322
George Hallam, London People Before Profit - 128
David Bishop, Bus-Pass Elvis Party - 93

LINK

UKIP scored a pathetic 5.49% on the day. And Labour's vote went up! And yet Farage's useful idiots still tried to spin a terrible result.

"It is becoming increasingly clear that UKIP is a refreshing alternative to the tired old status quo. The Lib Dems are almost a busted flush. People are turning to UKIP as they realise we are serious when it comes to putting Britain first." From the official UKIP website.

More election results from last year.......


Westbourne, Brighton and Hove

Conservative	1,027
Labour	826
Green	645
Lib Dem	45
UKIP	36
Trade Unionists & Socialists Against Cuts	20
European Citizens Party	13

Worlingham, Suffolk Con	706
Lab	586
Green	137
UKIP	64
LD	46

Hardly suggestive of a major breakthrough in British politics! But these facts were ignored. In Farage's 'New Year Message' to his followers.

"For UKIP 2011 saw us clearly establish ourselves as the 4th party in domestic politics".

Stuart Parr - never one to let the truth get in the way of a good lie - even went on record as saying on Farage Sycophants 4 UKIP that "UKIP is quite firmly cemented as the third party in English local politics". 

Polls continued to be quoted. UKIPPERS - including Parr - predicted that the party would win seats in the London Assembly and that Lawrence Webb would come third in the mayoral elections. They also boasted that UKIP would win seats up and down the country.

The press was no different:

The Telegraph on the London Assembly elections:

"The BNP are forecast to lose their one seat and UKIP to gain their first two seats". LINK

Or......

The Liberal Democrats have fallen into fourth place behind Ukip in a shock poll result which will cement a sense of crisis in the party.

Just a day after a poll found the Liberal Democrats would be all but wiped out if a general election were held now, a YouGov survey for the Sun put the party on eight per cent – one point behind Ukip.

The result comes as it emerged Liberal Democrat councillors in North Tyneside have wiped all mention of their party from election leaflets in a bid to cling onto their seats.

It will also boost expectations for Ukip's success in the upcoming local elections.

To read the original: LINK

And what happened on May 3rd?

UKIP's national share of the vote was just 5%. They won just nine council seats. They made no net gains. No seats were won in London and Lawrence Webb got under 2% of the vote! They only managed to contest 30% of the seats up for grabs. And the Lib Dems still managed to get 16% of the national vote!

So have Nigel's useful idiots now seen reason? Not on your life!

The latest post from Stuart Parr's Farage Sycophants 4 UKIP blog:

UKIP pull 2% clear of Lib Dems in YouGov poll

UKIP has pulled 2% clear of the Lib Dems in the latest YouGov daily poll which puts Labour on 44%, the Tories on 31%, UKIP on 9% and the Lib Dems on 7%.

It was left to Richard Allen - leading UKIP activist - to deal in some reality control:

London exclusive polling had us round about 5% for the assembly so it always looked touch and go. Anyone making a confident prediction of an assembly seat on those numbers was an idiot. Parr was even worse, he consistently used London sub samples of national polls which related to GE voting intentions. LINK

And.....

Stuart Parr is a complete and utter fool and much of what he writes on his blog is complete nonsense. Like many people in UKIP he selectively quotes opinion polls, while have almost zero understanding of opinion polling, and as such confidently predicted that UKIP would win assembly seats. He now needs an excuse to explain why it didn't happen. LINK

Nuff said!

Stuart Parr successfully wins UKIP's Muppet of the Year award