Has UKIP achieved its aim and what next for UKIP? by Major Niall Warry (rtd) -
Resigned member of UKIP and ongoing supporter.
Formerly UKIP PPC, UKIP Branch Chairman, UKIP Head Office Manager, Chairman of UKIP Wales.
I’m not actually sure what UKIP’s aim is and visiting their website left me none the wiser, but I suppose if we take UKIP’s primary AIM as this much quoted saying of Nigel Farage's :-"We seek an amicable divorce from the European Union and its replacement with a genuine free-trade agreement, which is what we thought we’d signed up for in the first place."Then you would conclude that to date UKIP has NOT achieved its aim, nor is ever likely to.Interestingly, and I see this as quite revealing insight into Nigel Farage’s current psyche, he doesn’t appear to say this anymore or certainly with as much clarity as he once did.Why not?Does he in his heart think, like I and many others do, that the most probable outcome is that the EU is going to collapse at sometime in the future?
Has he therefore, given his style and temperament, decided to enjoy the EU gravy train while he is able? Is this not also supported by the fact that Nigel Farage was founder and co president of the EFD, for the extra money it gave UKIP, despite as a Group being pro EU membership and containing some extreme racists and anti homosexuals.
The one thing Nigel Farage is not, is stupid, and so he must have concluded that, so long as the LibLabCon continues to hold sway at Westminster, with UKIP so hopelessly low in the polls and the EU ignoring the various referendums voting NO to Lisbon then, there is absolutely NO chance of anyone helping to initiate the EU’s demise least of all UKIP.This certainly gives Nigel Farage a perfect excuse for never having had any Strategy, Tactics or Plan!However the past is the past but, going forward, what could UKIP still do that would assist the overall Eurosceptic cause?
Benefits Analysis and our Exit and Survival Strategy
Well as I have constantly repeated of late it could spearhead the vital and necessary work of producing and publishing for free distribution a full Benefits Analysis of why we would be ‘Better off Out’ and also a comprehensive Exit & Survival Strategy to ensure a smooth transition from EU membership to simply trading with the member states.
In support of these two most vital publications, what else should UKIP do as the self proclaimed brand leader and still, despite the internal troubles, the only realistic Eurosceptic political party?
Next Euro Election
Despite agreeing with Alan Sked’s initial view, that UKIP should not go to Brussels, we are now where we are and keeping our representation in the EU Parliament does have some useful advantages if handled correctly. However the key places on the Regional MEP lists should go to high profile candidates, of some recognised public gravitas, like Tim Congdon from the party.
There are of course many from outside the party who would be ideal candidates. High profile candidates, who are already in the public eye, could generate far more anti EU publicity which, given the current state of the EU, could help finish it off!
Funnily enough keeping Nigel Farage for his media skills and recognition would make him a useful part of the team, but he needs to realise that he is not cut out to be the leader as his behaviour, judgement and divisive nature have clearly shown over the years.So it would be churlish not to recognise that the Euro Elections are still UKIP’s battle ground from which, with better leadership, better candidates and a basic plan a great deal more and better quality anti EU PR could be achieved.
Next General Election
Unlike the Euro Elections the facts are: UKIP have not even come close in 18 years in getting an MP elected. In addition the only MP who rebadged to UKIP, Bob Spink, left shortly afterwards having changed his mind one can only assume once he realised what Nigel Farage’s EUKIP was all about.To still be only attracting, in the main, around 4% in domestic elections after so long has little meaning or value. Even when they do achieve a higher percentage share of the vote it still usually leaves them trailing in 3rd or 4th place.
In our traditonal two horse race it is ridiculous, on current form, to believe UKIP will have any meaningful relevance for years to come.So in this area, of failing to make any impression at Westminster after 18 years, Nigel Farage’s lack of any coherent strategy, tactics or plan are surely laid bare.To improve this situation detailed research and analysis is needed so that UKIP only select a limited number of seats in which they might have the most impact and then concentrate all their limited resources to these seats.The trouble is, particularly under Nigel Farage, that UKIP have not been able to demonstrate that they are any better than the other parties and sadly Nigel Farage’s record shows that under his leadership he is unlikely to ever convince the British public that UKIP has what it takes.There are so many reasons which bar UKIP from making a break through at Westminster it is difficult to know where to start. However just consider one of many examples of the muddle at the heart of UKIP.
As the ‘UNITED KINGDOM Independence Party’ they cannot even decide if they are for the Welsh Assembly or not. Recently the UKIP members in Wales wished to oppose the Assembly but Nigel Farage over ruled them.Nigel Farage does manage to get some PR for his occasional outbursts of anti EU rhetoric but this has to be viewed alongside the overall smell of corruption in UKIP which, is there for all to see, and we can only assume will be used by the media in a manner of their choosing.Given UKIP’s chequered history and policy confusions at its heart does anyone seriously think that the British people will ever vote in a UKIP MP?
UKIP under Nigel Farage’s leadership will never be good enough to seriously compete or beat the LibLabCon and so will sadly continue to be an irrelevance. By way of consolation, as one part of the Eurosceptic Movement, they can at least look forward to the EU’s collapse knowing, along with the likes of Jimmy Goldsmith’s efforts to keep us out the Euro, that they did have a walk on part in this drama!However the job is far from done and the two big outstanding jobs that need to be tackled, and UKIP are ideally suited to take this on, is first to complete a Benefits Analysis as to how much better off we would be outside the EU and second to publish a detailed Exit and Survival Strategy to go into the detail of how we extract ourselves from the EU to make our withdrawal as smooth as possible when the time comes.
Repatriating powers from Brussels needs to be carefully planned for as the old saying goes:“Time spent in preparation and planning is seldom wasted”.Can EUkip once again become UKIP and rise to these two important challenges with a strategy, tactics and plan for the next Euro and General Elections that will assist and support these two most vital publications?
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