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Members & staff of UKIP past & present. Committed to reforming the party by exposing the corruption and dishonesty that lies at its heart, in the hope of making it fit for purpose. Only by removing Nigel Farage and his sycophants on the NEC can we save UKIP from electoral oblivion. SEE: http://juniusonukip.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/a-statement-re-junius.html

Monday, 9 August 2010

The Myth of the 'UKIP Effect'

UKIP’s corrupt leadership still persist in claiming that they denied the Tories a majority in the General Election. They even recently wheeled out Stuart Agnew - currently under investigation by OLAF - to spout more nonsense about this in the East Anglian Daily Times. For more on this bent MEP see: LINK

Even the CIB has now fallen for this lie in their latest newspaper.

This is yet another example of UKIP spin that has absolutely no basis in fact. For instance, where is the proof that a UKIP voter will automatically vote Tory if denied a UKIP candidate? The answer is none.

Let us quickly look at the Tories top 40 target seats to see if the ‘UKIP Effect’ played a part.

Out of the 40 only 7 of them had more UKIP votes than were needed for the Conservatives to get a seat. Of these, 3 of them were that marginal that every other candidate standing could claim that they had cost the Tories the seat!

So much for the 'UKIP Effect'.

And would UKIP's leadership please spare us any nonsense about the possibility of their candidates winning seats in Parliament? Under the current corrupt clique you will NEVER win any seats!

UKIP’s national share of the vote in the General Election was a pathetic 3.54%.

Even Nigel Farage came third behind a pro-EU candidate in Buckingham with just 17.3%. And this was despite swamping the constituency with activists and money! No other UKIP candidate hit double digits.

But at least UKIP topped the charts in lost deposits:

UK Independence Party: 458 (Total loss: £229,000).
Green: 328
Independent: 313
British National Party: 265
English Democrats: 106
Christian Party: 71
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition: 38
Monster Raving Loony Party: 27
Socialist Labour Party: 23
Christian Peoples Alliance: 17
National Front: 17
Alliance Party: 10
Scottish Socialist Party: 10
Plaid Cymru: 10
Pirate Party UK: 9
Respect-Unity Coalition: 8
Other small parties: 177
Total: 1887 (£943,500)

Unlike the larger parties, UKIP not only had a lower vote share in the general election than in the Europeans, but actually won fewer votes (917,832, compared with nearly 2.5 million).

Since then the UKIP vote has declined even further. In a recent local election in the South West (supposedly a UKIP stronghold) they came last with just 34 votes.

And in the recent Rotherham by-election they only managed to come fourth:

Con 1213
Lab 864
Independent 252
UKIP 241
LD Abdul Razaq 98

It is also interesting to note that eight out of UKIP’s highest ten results were in constituencies where there was no BNP candidate, which suggests that UKIP do best where there is no BNP candidate to split a shared pool of supporters.

Also see: LINK

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